Most companies aren't using AI. They're just saying they are.
大多数公司并没有真正用 AI。他们只是在说自己用了。
It's not that companies aren't using AI: it's that they can't.
问题不是公司没有用 AI，而是他们根本不具备用 AI 的能力。
Most of the frustration people have with AI not being able to do what they want is actually them not being able to describe what they want.
人们对 AI 失望的真正原因，往往是自己根本说不清楚想让 AI 做什么。
真正的瓶颈：说不清要什么
I have consulted for the world's largest companies, hundreds of startups, and tons of mid-size companies in the Global 1000. The number one issue I see is unclear and constantly-changing vision and goals.
我为世界上最大的公司、数百家初创企业和大量 Global 1000 中型公司做过咨询。我看到的首要问题是：目标和愿景模糊不清，而且不断变化。
AI is about execution, and it's quite powerless when it doesn't know what to execute. Companies that know exactly what they want are thriving with AI. And the better the AI gets, the more they will crush it.
AI 的本质是执行，当它不知道该执行什么时，就毫无用处。那些清楚知道自己要什么的公司，正在 AI 领域碾压对手。而且 AI 越强，他们越强。
But this is a small percentage of companies, because only a small percentage of companies are self-aware and together enough to give AI proper instructions. You can't optimize what you don't understand. And it's foolish to scale something that you shouldn't be doing in the first place.
但能做到这一点的公司只是少数，因为只有少数公司具备足够的自我认知和能力，给 AI 发出正确的指令。你无法优化你不理解的东西。如果一件事你本来就不该做，规模化它更是愚蠢。
黑色盒子公司
People talk about companies not being ready for AI and I don't think they realize how bad the problem is. This is not a technical maturity issue. It's a whole lot more fundamental than that.
人们说公司没有为 AI 做好准备，但他们没意识到问题有多严重。这不是一个技术成熟度的问题，而是比那基础得多的问题。
A massive percentage of companies are haphazardly successful despite themselves. It's not super clear what they're trying to accomplish or how exactly they're doing it, but they have a few tricks that work, that they're decent enough at executing, that they're still around.
大量公司的成功其实是侥幸的。他们自己都不是很清楚在试图完成什么、具体怎么做，但有几招还行，执行得也还可以，所以还活着。
But if you were to walk into the company and say, OK, describe to me what you're trying to do, and what your strategies are, and what your challenges are, and what your work streams are — they would either stare blankly at you or laugh in your face. It would take them weeks to put together a project brief.
但如果你走进这些公司说，"好，描述一下你们在试图做什么，你们的策略是什么，你们的挑战是什么，你们的工作流程是什么"——他们要么茫然地看着你，要么当面嘲笑你。光是整理一份项目简报就需要好几周。
I honestly believe the vast majority of companies are in grave danger because they are essentially chaotic black boxes that barely work.
我真心相信绝大多数公司都处于严重危险之中，因为它们本质上就是勉强运转的混乱黑盒子。
Having the board or leadership tell everyone in such a company to "use AI" is like looking at a screen of nothing but static and saying, "we gotta scale this thing."
让董事或领导层在这种公司里告诉所有人"用 AI"，就像看着满屏雪花点说"把这玩意儿规模化吧"。
Cool, boss. Do me a favor and point at the thing you want me to improve.
好嘞老板。麻烦您先指出您想让我改进的那件事是什么。
哪些公司真正在用 AI
What's hilarious, and easy to see, is that the companies AI is helping are somehow magically the same companies that already know what they're doing.
讽刺的是，很容易发现，被 AI 真正帮助的公司恰恰就是那些本来就知道自己在做什么的公司。
They can tell you very quickly:
这些公司能立刻回答：
- the problem or problems that they are solving for customers
- the problem with existing solutions that their solution solves
- the goals they have for the company
- the metrics associated with those goals
- the challenges that are stopping them from reaching their goals
- the strategies they are pursuing to overcome those challenges
- the projects they are doing to implement those strategies
- the work that is being done within those projects
- and how much it is costing them
他们能清楚说出自己在为客户解决什么问题、现有方案的什么问题他们解决了、公司的目标是什么、与目标相关的指标是什么、阻止目标实现的挑战是什么、他们用来克服挑战的策略是什么、正在执行这些策略的项目是什么、项目内的工作是什么，以及成本是多少。
And crucially, companies that know what they're doing give largely the same answers to these questions across different quarters and years.
关键在于：知道自己在做什么的公司，在不同季度和年份里对这些问题的回答基本是一致的。
A sure sign of a flailing company is when their departments spend massive amounts of time claiming to have those answers — but the answers significantly change every quarter because everything is constantly in flux. So people are just writing down whatever they think makes them look good.
一个摇摇欲坠的公司的明显标志是：各个部门花了大量时间声称自己有这些答案——但每个季度答案都会大幅变化，因为一切都在不断变化。所以人们只是在写他们觉得让自己看起来不错的答案。
AI can do basically nothing for these companies. In fact, it could even make it worse — because now it helps people flail more impressively. Like with more backflips and charts and stuff.
AI 对这些公司基本毫无作用。事实上，它甚至可能让情况更糟——因为现在它帮人们以更"花哨"的方式挣扎，更多后空翻、更多图表。
And you may ask, "well, if they're so bad, then how are they still around?" The answer is simple: most of their competition is just as bad.
你可能会问："那既然这么烂，他们怎么还活着？"答案很简单：他们的大多数竞争对手也一样烂。
真正的危险
AI has barely even started in the enterprise, because only a tiny fraction of companies have the self-knowledge and ability to articulate themselves well enough to be ready for AI.
AI 在企业领域几乎还没有真正开始，因为只有极少数公司具备足够的自我认知和能力来清晰地表达自己，从而为 AI 做好准备。
We should stop looking at AI as the problem, or even technology as the problem. The issue is not being able to describe one's company clearly—including its goals, workflows, operations, decisions, teams, and spending —in a clear and consumable fashion.
我们应该停止把 AI 或技术当作问题所在。真正的问题是：无法清晰描述自己的公司——包括目标、工作流程、运营、决策、团队和支出——以清晰、可消费的方式。
Companies who are unable to do this are in grave danger from companies that can.
无法做到这一点的公司，正面临来自能做到这一点的公司的巨大危险。
The primary danger to large unwieldy companies is that it's now possible for a smaller company to function with the strength of a much larger one. And it's far easier for a small company to be able to answer the questions above.
大型臃肿公司的主要危险在于：现在小公司已经可以拥有大公司的执行力了。 而且小公司要回答上述问题要容易得多。
Because of this, all existing companies are about to face extraordinary downward force. And only companies who have their shit together will stay afloat and rise.
正因为如此，所有现有公司都将面临巨大的下行压力。只有那些把事情理清楚的公司才能存活并崛起。
AI is a remarkably small part of who will win or lose in this initial phase. AI is what the winners will use to fight each other in the New World. Right now, the game is figuring out who's going to make it there.
在这个初期阶段，AI 在决定谁赢谁输上只占很小的一部分。AI 是赢家们在新宿醉中用来相互斗争的工具。而现在，真正的游戏是搞清楚谁会活到那里。
The number one question you should be asking as a company is not what AI can do for you, but whether or not your company is in the state where AI can help at all. And if not, then you need to get into that state as quickly as possible.
作为公司，你应问的头号问题不是"AI 能为你做什么"，而是"你的公司是否处于 AI 能帮到它的状态"。如果不是，你需要尽快进入那个状态。
🦞 虾评： Daniel Miessler 这篇文章的本质不是关于 AI，而是关于"清晰度"这个公司竞争力维度。AI 放大了这个差距——能说清楚目标的小公司用 AI 拥有了大公司的执行力，而说不清楚的大公司只会用 AI 更高效地浪费资源。这和 Chamath 那篇 AI Stack 报告合起来读：一个讲价值链在哪，一个讲谁配得上在价值链上竞争。